Sale price premium cannot be claimed by advertising alone

Having highlighted the unbelievable claim last week that the Herald Homes advertising contributed to securing a 20% premium sale price I received details back from NZ Herald as to the research.

It is my belief that the research is a classic case of confusing correlation with causation. I have further undertaken my own research to provide an alternative hypothesis that in my mind dispels the claim by Herald Homes.

I therefore judge that the NZ Herald advertising claim is without foundation and therefore fundamentally misleading.

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Sale price premium cannot be claimed by advertising alone


Having highlighted the unbelievable claim last week that the Herald Homes advertising contributed to securing a 20% premium sale price I received details back from NZ Herald as to the research.

It is my belief that the research is a classic case of confusing correlation with causation. I have further undertaken my own research to provide an alternative hypothesis that in my mind dispels the claim by Herald Homes.

I therefore judge that the NZ Herald advertising claim is without foundation and therefore fundamentally misleading.

 

 

One property does not a market make!

The sale of the Grey Lynn Villa for over $3m is an outlier and tell us nothing about the Auckland property market, what it more importantly tells us is more about our economic future and that of NZ for the coming decade

 

The Auckland Property Market is Cooling

The analysis of the key metrics from the Auckland property market for September bolstered by the trend of the first 9 months of the year paint a very clear picture that shows that the Auckland market is cooling

 

Same data/ different story

Newspapers continue to print articles on the property market that are simply cut and pasted from press releases. The latest example based on Barfoot & Thompson September data motivated me to re-write the opening paragraphs based on the core data to present a very different story - one I believe is factually more accurate and based on the principle that "bad news sells papers" should be adopted by the paper!

 

Vendor Conditioning - how real is it, and what does it mean?

A comment was made in relation to my recent series of articles about selling our house which claimed that we were the 'victims' of agent behaviour known as vendor conditioning. I thought it of value to give this subject some exposure to illicit some discussion.

 

Trade Me Property assumes the mantle of data insight leadership

We have a new report into the property market, a report from a new source - Trade Me Property. Clearly they have seen an opportunity in the market to take over from Realestate.co.nz who have for 5 years been producing a report on the supply side of the market, but who in recent months seem to have given up on the initiative.

This new report track asking price of new listings and will likely become a valuable lead indicator in the market. It will be interesting to see if Realestate.co.nz respond or if they are happy to let Trade Me Property assume this mantle of thought leadership.

 

How long has that house been on the market?

We have all heard endlessly that the market is suffering from a shortage of listings - so what would be your reaction if I said that across the country half of all properties for sale have been on the market for more than 3 months - waiting for a buyer? Further if told you that 1 in 4 of the properties for sale today across NZ has been on the market since Christmas. 

The data drawn from analysis of the listings on Realestate.co.nz shows some interesting insight into the make up of properties on the market and gives an insight into really how long it can take to sell a property, especially in provincial NZ

 

Auctions are once again dominating the Auckland market

In the past 7 days close to half of all new listings in Auckland were Auctions!

This supports the media coverage last week, but whilst half of new listings are choosing to be marketed as auctions the success rate of auctions continues to come down to interpretation of this art form of reporting - who you believe and what you judge to be an auction sale!

 

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