It is a conundrum that is starting to raise concerns around the validity of the core data of median price and stratified price. I do however believe that the reason for the wide fluctuations in price reporting can be traced back to the impact the Reserve Bank's LVR restriction has had in the lower priced segments of the property market.
I believe underlying the headline figure of property prices is a fairly subdued property market already seeing sales volumes weaken and prices loose momentum.
The UK has this month aired a new documentary series on the real estate profession. This one focuses on the life of an agent - well a number of agents from very varied parts of the UK. From areas where $100k is the average house price to central London where below $10m is not really worth touching!!
A great watch and the best bit is its there on YouTube for all kiwi's to watch
Logic would suggest that with demand high and a strong sellers' market in play, then vendors and their agents would feel confident to pitch property price expectations a little bit higher in the logic of seeing "what the market will bear". It seems based on the data from the past 7 years and particularly the past 3 this is not the case.
Barfoot & Thompson are the largest real estate company in NZ's largest city, accounting for over 40% of the city's property sales. This family in my opinion exhibit smart marketing and deliver excellent performance metrics which puts them in a leading role in the industry - a true powerhouse!
When a Chief Economist from one of the leading banks states that it is impossible to tell what is really going on with house prices, then we should be worried.
However there is a solution - ensure the right data is available to analyse - and that responsibility rests entirely with the Real Estate Institute - they could assist the economists of this country to help us all better understand property price trends
The constant theme of comments from within the real estate industry as well as respected economists is we are facing a serious shortage of properties for sale, which is driving this sellers' market.
I am always keen to see if suppositions can be backed up by the data and my analysis says the opposite. We don't have a shortage of listings and the market has already turned a corner - a significant corner in terms of the clearance rate of properties being sold
The iPad fulfils a very different role in my opinion from the iPhone or other smartphone as such I believe that applying the same underlying user experience is a wasted opportunity - with this in mind I have reviewed what I see as the 3 top contenders in NZ. As you will see the review is extensive and enlightening and the result not surprising and sadly not that valuable for users!
Following the recent analysis of the strides made by industry owned website Realestate.co.nz, the Head of Commercial for Trade Me offered his very detailed response. This allowed me to provide my response and in so doing highlight some more highlights, insights and analysis
Whilst I don't think the statement I made a few months ago that all you needed to focus on for property marketing in NZ was Trade Me, I have to say I am interested to see what is happening with Realestate.co.nz. They have published some impressive new stats that having delved a little deeper shows the comparative advantage in online property advertising may be shifting
It seemed to be the trend that property sizes were growing in proportion to the girth of the population, however examining the data from building consents we seem to be getting slimmer. The US on the other hand seems to be letting out their belts!
Good decisions can be made based upon complete, accurate data. Vested interest groups and politically minded people love to hijack incomplete data.
Property is intrinsically a rich data set - however incomplete data leads to the current discussion about overseas buyers impacting the property market and driving prices out of the reach of ordinary kiwis - FACT or SUPPOSITION?
If we had better data then we could have facts upon which we could really debate the issue - here is my view of what’s wrong and what should be done by whom to fix the issue