The Auckland property market is cooling
The latest batch of property statistics provide what I think is a vital support to the view that the Auckland property market is cooling.
A year ago the Auckland market was powering on at a pace. In its September 2013 monthly housing market update Barfoot & Thompson reported year-on-year sales up 14%, with the median sales price up 14%. At the same time the inventory of property for sale on the market as measured by the Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report slumped to just 11.5 weeks down from 17 weeks a year earlier .
Examining each of these key metrics of the property market a year later we will see just how much as changed in the past year and supports the view in my opinion that the heat has certainly come out of the Auckland market.
Sales are the leading indicator of property demand and as the chart below shows the trend is down.
Monthly sales as reported by Barfoot & Thompson who representing close to 40% of all Auckland sales provide a robust view of the market. Their data shows sales in the 9 months so far of 2014 below the 2013 level for 8 of those 9 months, with the differential if anything growing wider in the past 3 months with September down 13% as compared to a year ago.
New listings coming onto the market provide a view as to the confidence in the market amongst sellers and as the chart below shows the level of new listings is down in all but 2 of the months of 2014.
From Realestate.co.nz data total listings across the Auckland region in the first 9 months of 2014 amount to a total of 30,449 as compared to the same 9 months of 2013 at 32,484 down 6%.
With sales in the first 9 months of 2014 down 12% and the level of new listings down 6% it would come as no surprise to see that the inventory of property for sale has been rising in 2014 as the chart below demonstrates.
This metric of inventory of property on the market uses the current rate of sales to estimate the time it would take in theory to sell all the property on the market at the end of September. It certainly shows a significant improvement in the weeks of inventory. In case you were wondering if the actual number of listings was higher this year than last year the chart below will answer that easily. It may not be as significant a rise in inventory but there are more properties for sale at the end of September this year than last and of course fewer are selling.
Sales price tends to lag sales volumes which tend to reflect demand and supply as measured by inventory and new listings. The chart below based on Barfoot & Thompson median sales price indexed to the January sales price in each of the past 3 years shows a strong start to this year but since April the median price has hardly moved with the September level barely up on August.
So in summary. Sales are down, new listings are not flowing onto the market as sellers lack confidence, this is lessening any pressure in the market from buyers who are subdued and as a consequence the pressure of constrained inventory has lessened and this has signalled a plateauing of property sales price. In short - the heat has come out of the Auckland property market.