The NZ Property Cycle - 4 years to June 2013
Property markets move in cycles. The current market is firmly established as a sellers market. This current state is widening, in the sense that the total market when seen by region is gradually migrating in the direction of more and more favouring sellers.
In order to present this analysis of the market I have created a series of 4 charts which show the picture of the NZ property market by region for each of the past 4 years 2010 - 2013. I have used the measure of inventory as presented by the NZ Property Report from Realestate.co.nz which each month assesses the market in each region measuring the available inventory of property on the market and dividing it by the average weekly sales for the past 3 months using the REINZ sales figures. This computation generates an inventory; not as an absolute number, but as an equivalent stock in number of weeks based on the current rate-of-sale.
I very much favour this approach as it reflect the key driver of the property market which is supply matched to demand. As sales increase and inventory is slow to respond, as has been the case for the past two years the inventory measured in the number of weeks of equivalent sales falls sharply.
These monthly statistics of available inventory drive the Property Dashboard which is presented by Properazzi each month in the form of a barometer of the market visually showing the degree to which each region of the country is experiencing a buyers or sellers market.
The four charts presented below present the inventory at June 2010 / June 2011 / June 2012 and June 2013 and clearly show the trend. The trend which over the 4 years has seen a situation where in 2010 4 years ago, all but 4 of the 19 regions were in a balanced or buyers market to where today in 2013 only four regions are in a balanced market with none favouring buyers and the majority in a moderate or extreme sellers market.